Send in the Canaries

In the ear­ly 1900s, coal min­ers in the UK found that, if they took live canaries down into the mines, they could pre­dict the pres­ence of lethal gas­es. If the canary in the cage died, they knew the air wasn’t safe to breathe and had to get out quickly.

A shoutout to Andrew Limouris, CEO of Medix, and his team for recent­ly remind­ing me of the phrase ​‘canary in the coal mine’ which is still used today to describe some kind of pre­dic­tive indi­ca­tor of seri­ous trouble.

The most suc­cess­ful lead­ers we’ve worked with, around the world and across indus­tries, proac­tive­ly and reg­u­lar­ly send out their canaries. Not just to look out for dan­ger but to seek and gath­er indi­ca­tors that give them a for­ward-look­ing pulse on their mar­ket, and what they might expect in the next few quar­ters to few years.

Read­ing the Signs

These signs come from at least three to five data sources and exter­nal indi­ca­tors: ana­lysts or sub­scribed data feeds, finan­cial reports or fore­casts from dif­fer­ent orga­ni­za­tions in their space. Some com­pa­nies use their own clever algo­rithms or sim­ple excel sheets to extrap­o­late data.

What­ev­er the source and method of analy­sis, these lead­ers want to under­stand what their cus­tomers are think­ing, and what’s hap­pen­ing in the marketplace.

And they use what the data — com­bined with decades of expe­ri­ence in dif­fer­ent mar­ket cycles — to inform and direct their strate­gic think­ing, and to pre­dict what’s coming.

Now, this ongo­ing influx of data doesn’t nec­es­sar­i­ly give lead­ers all the answers. But it does give them a wider view than they get in their inter­nal world.

As impor­tant, this exer­cise trig­gers new and dif­fer­ent ques­tions, which lead to new and dif­fer­ent perspectives.

Michel Dell, from Dell Tech­nolo­gies calls it ​“read­ing the tea leaves”.

The Chal­lenge

• What helps to under­stand the canary in your industry’s coal mine?
• How do you use the infor­ma­tion to inform your strate­gic thinking?

Oth­er Blogs

• When You Think You’re Mak­ing the Right Decisions
• Four Ques­tions to Ask Your Cus­tomers 

Old­er Podcasts

• Think Time: The Only Way to Become More Strategic